September 28, 2022 | Article

Dr. Ehud Ronn recent update addresses the issue of whether there is a perception of “light at the end of the tunnel” when it comes to the rate of inflation in the U.S. 

Dr. Ronn is a Professor of Finance at the McCombs School of Business, University of Texas at Austin. His research and teaching interests focus on the valuation of energy commodity-contingent securities. His


The months of Feb. 2020 and Feb. 2022 brought numerous developments — in society, in economics and in geopolitics — which have persisted. In my previous depatches, I have sought to present how financial markets in equity, debt and commodities have reflected and quantified these crises. At this time, I address the issue of whether, at long last, there is a perception of “light at the end of the tunnel” when it comes to the rate of inflation in the U. S. The reader will clearly observe the academic caution manifested in the use of the indefinite article in this analysis’ title.

While briefly summarizing the myriad impacts on inflation of economic variables, and the degree of responsiveness by fiscal and monetary authorities in the U. S., quantitatively I will focus on those measures of forward-looking inflation provided to us by the financial markets. I seek to document here a possible positive sign regarding a prospective decline in the rate of inflation in the remainder of 2022 and in 2023. I briefly comment on oil prices at the conclusion.

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